During the second Real Estate and Financial Congress (CIFI) in French-speaking Switzerland on November 25th, Capvest teams present at the event noted some salient statistical points, notably during the presentation by the State Councillor of the Canton of Vaud, Mrs. Christelle Luisier Brodard.

The population of the Canton of Vaud was 600’000 in 2000 and will be 940’000 in 2030, an increase of more than 50% in 30 years ! The combination of a strong demographic growth with a vacancy rate falling to 1.1% on June 1st, 2022, the same as in 2000, induces a strong demand and a scarcity effect, a source of constant and stabilizing pressure on the prices of owned housing and on rents.

Various pragmatic solutions were mentioned by the State Councillor, including the acceleration of permit procedures, more efficient processing of requests and the dematerialization of procedures. The fight against the obstacles to the renovation of buildings and housing was also put forward as a revision of the State’s land strategy. The IAZI-CIFI study recalled the 205% increase in the price of owned housing in the Canton of Geneva and 155% in the Canton of Vaud since 1998, to be put in perspective with a sharp decline in new construction activity over the past 15 years for villas and apartment buildings.

These figures undoubtedly demonstrate a scarcity effect for new housing and the arrival of a shortage. Mortgage rates for 15-year terms have risen to 3.2%, but 33% lower than in 2008, and the SARON mortgage at 1.4% is still 65% lower than in 2007 ! Despite this rise, the rates remain significantly lower than before the crisis of 2007 ! It is therefore still interesting in an inflationary environment to look at the real rates and home ownership remains a rational objective for many families.

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